Monday, April 26, 2010

Ryan Howard extension

By now you've heard the Phillies have locked up 1B Ryan Howard to a five year contract worth $125M. If you're a Phillies fan, you thought you'd never see the day when the team spent money to keep up competitively, but if you're not a fan, you probably think the Phils made the worst financial deal of all time given Howard's age and contract length. Let's be honest, Howard hasn't reached a decline point yet, but how will he respond to age. He's a smaller David Ortiz (and Ortiz hasn't aged well). Howard is thirty this season which is typically where analysts and fans begin to jump off hte wagon on a guy, and how can you blame with a league like the NL without a DH? Howard will basically become un-trade able should he decline (which I'm generously giving him until 34).That point, the Phils are on the hook for one more year under contract and he's free to walk. I don't see the problem here. Boston fans have watched Big Papi slip for almost a season and a half. The biggest reason the Phils did this deal without flinching is the fact of the team they have currently. Victorino, Halladay, Ruiz and etc. are all under contract to make consecutive runs. Sure, Raul Ibanez could retire and Jayson Werth & J-Roll could be gone, but still looking at them on paper, they still look like a first place team. This is why Ryan's deal make sense. It's more than enough incentive to take a small risk of decline. Maybe the analysts need to lay-off saying it's overall bad (excluding Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal partially). If anybody needs to leave, it's Cole Hamels. He's been inconsistent to a "t" and when Joe Blanton comes back should be sent to AAA to work out his issues. In the meantime, don't knock a guy who knows how to bring in runs and swings a good bat getting a big contract. Wait until the years go away (with or without WS championships) and see how Ryan Howard continues to play the game.

As a society, we tend to evaluate decisions quickly without giving things time to work out. Look at Alex Rodriguez's sky-high contract. Great in the regular season, but leaves much to be desired in the playoffs when it counts (don't argue that 2009 validates him, because one season doesn't). Howard is just as consistent come play-offs ( excuse his hiccup last season hitting an abysmal .174). A-Rod's playoff resume is longer than Howard's and his BA only outranks Howards by .23. Yankees fan would agree that A-Rod has been worth despite his struggles would they not?

Ryan Howard may not be the HR leader of all-time, multiple-time world champion, or best 1B of all-time, but he provides a solid bat for a solid team that has multiple bats. Just like A-Rid, just like pre- 2008 David Ortiz, etc.

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